How a pinky promise stopped a war in the Middle East
How a pinky promise stopped a war in the Middle East
Jordanian and Israeli leaders did the political equivalent of "just trust me bro" and it literally worked.
Apart from being one of the most volatile regions in the world, one thing has always been true about the middle east: stories involving old school Jordanian Kings are usually the coolest.
Buckle up because we’re going to explore a remarkable tale of trust, fully based on the first hand accounts of King Hussein (who ruled Jordan from 1952 all the way to 1999).
It’s the eve of the Gulf Crisis of the 1990’s. Iraq has just invaded Kuwait and everyone knows something is about to go down. The Americans are riled up to the max, every Arab nation in the region is frantically trying to calculate its next move, the Israelis are at the edge of their seats ready to ruthlessly defend their own interests, and in the middle of it all, bordering both Iraq and Israel (all while getting pressured by the Americans) - is the Kingdom of Jordan.
The Jordanian’s strategy is clear: We don’t know what’s going to happen. We don’t want to fight, and probably can’t win a military conflict against any of these countries anyway. All we can do is send a strong signal that anyone who dares attack us will suffer heavy losses.
Apart from being a remarkable manifestation of Game Theory’s Generous Tit for Tat strategy, you have to admire how pragmatic they are with their assessments.
The order was given for mobilization, and soon enough almost 250,000 Jordanian troops were placed on full alert along the Iraqi, Israeli, Northern, and Southern borders.
Meanwhile in Israel, acting Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir, who had been anxiously watching the situation unravel, gets word that the Jordanians have begun mass mobilization, and is immediately struck with a vivid recollection of the conditions that lead up to the previous war of 1973:
It was a particularly disastrous one, since Israeli leaders, despite possessing outrageously strong intelligence at the time that a surprise attack was imminent from Egypt, Syria and Jordan - promptly chose to ignore it in what is probably one of the worst examples of miscalculation in recent history. Needless to say they immediately got hit with the full brunt of a threeway co-ordinated assault (plus expeditionary forces from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and a few extras), and thrust into an existential war at a huge disadvantage, just barely pulling through.
And so, right before the Gulf War breaks out, Jordanian and Israeli leaders hastily agree to meet face to face, taking a moment to try and figure out what the hell is going on. No-one tells it better than King Hussein himself, so let’s directly quote his account of the meeting from an interview a few years after the war:
Shamir said to me: ‘Look, I have a dilemma. In 1973 our people were not vigilant enough and the Arab attack came in and a lot of damage occurred. Now we see that you have your troops mobilised and my generals are calling for me to do the same and to have our troops facing yours. There isn’t much distance in the Jordanian Valley and it would be totally irresponsible, they say, if I did not take the same measure.’
So I said, ‘Prime Minister, you are perfectly within your rights to take the same measures if you feel like it, but let me suggest that if that happens then the possibility of an accidental war developing between us is very real.’
He said, ‘Well, what is your position?’ I said, ‘My position is purely defensive.’ I made it very clear that we will try to stop anyone who transgresses against Jordan from any direction.
He said, ‘Do I have your word?’ I said, ‘Yes, you have my word.’ He said, ‘That is good enough for me and I will prevent our people from moving anywhere.’ And he did.
And that was one of the events I will always remember. That he recognised that my word was good enough and that this is the way people ought to deal with each other.
If this doesn’t give you goosebumps I don’t know what will. During one of the most volatile moments in the region’s history, two leaders who had been at war not 20 years earlier decide that they’d both rather just trust eachother’s word than accidentally escalate the situation further.
Because of that, while the Gulf War broke out in Iraq, the Jordanian-Israeli one did not.
The source of the quotes by the way, is from the report of the first Israeli to interview the King shortly after the two countries signed a peace agreement in 1993, just a few years later.
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Bonus Content!
Some of King Hussein’s tales are just too good not to include here. Here he is recounting his last interaction with Saddam Hussein just before the invasion of Kuwait, right after a particularly frustrating meeting where he attempted to dissuade him from further escalating tensions with the west. I can’t tell if he’s aware of how comedic his delivery of this story is or if he’s just being earnest, but either way enjoy:
At the airport, as I was leaving, Saddam Hussein said to me: ‘Look, Abu Abdullah, don’t worry. The whole world is against us but God is with us, and we are going to win.’ I said, ‘This is beyond my ability to comprehend or to deal with. I leave very saddened and very distressed and I know that the results as they appear to me are going to be disastrous everywhere.’
What a guy.
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